2024年3月30日，中国科学院大气物理研究所邹立维课题组在《大气科学进展》杂志发表论文，报道了青藏高原当前和未来气候的对流许可模拟。

据介绍，青藏高原（TP）地区被称为“亚洲水塔”，为下游地区提供了重要的水源。以前对青藏高原水循环变化的研究是用粗分辨率的气候模型进行的，其中深层对流应该被参数化。

研究人员展示了第一组高分辨率气候变化模拟的结果，这些模拟允许对流在大约3.3km的网格间距上进行，重点对TP地区使用二十面体非流体静力天气和气候模型(ICON)进行模拟。研究进行了两个12年模拟，包括2008-2020年基于ERA5再分析的初始和边界条件进行的回溯模拟，以及通过修正的再分析初始和边界条件驱动的伪全球变暖，预估添加SSP5-8.5情境下CMIP6月度集合平均气候变化。

回顾性模拟结果表明，在捕获季节降水和地表气温方面总体表现良好。在TP中部和东部，全年降水量(温度)的平均偏差小于-0.34 mm/d(-1.1°C)。在TP上模拟的偏差取决于高度。在5500米以上的夏季(冬季)发现了冷(湿)偏差。未来气候模拟表明，在SSP5-8.5情景下，TP将更加湿润和温暖。ICON预估变化的总体特征与CMIP6集合预估相当，但在复杂地形区域的降水和温度预估中，公里尺度建模的附加价值都很明显。这些ICON尺度的气候变化模拟为研究区域气候变化，及其对TP的影响提供了高分辨率的数据集。

附：英文原文

Title: Convection-permitting simulations of current and future climates over the Tibetan Plateau

Author: Liwei ZOU, Tian-Jun ZHOU

Issue&Volume: 2024-03-30

Abstract: The Tibetan Plateau (TP) region, known as “Asian water tower”, provides a vital water resource for downstream regions. Previous studies of water cycle changes over the TP have been conducted with climate models of coarse resolution in which deep convection should be parameterized. In this study, we present results from a first set of high-resolution climate change simulations that permit convection at approximately 3.3-km grid spacing with focus on the TP using the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model (ICON). Two 12-year simulations were performed, consisting of a retrospective simulation (2008-2020) with initial and boundary conditions from ERA5 reanalysis and a pseudo-global warming projection driven by modified reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions by adding the monthly CMIP6 ensemble-mean climate change under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The retrospective simulation shows overall good performance in capturing the seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature. Over the central and eastern TP, the average biases in precipitation (temperature) are less than -0.34 mm/day (-1.1 °C) throughout the year. The simulated biases over the TP are height dependent. Cold (wet) biases are found in summer (winter) above 5500 m. The future climate simulation suggests that the TP will be wetter and warmer under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The general features of projected changes in ICON are comparable to the CMIP6 ensemble projection, but the added value from kilometer-scale modeling is evident in both precipitation and temperature projections over complex topographic regions. These ICON-downscaled climate change simulations provide a high-resolution dataset to the community for study of regional climate changes and impacts over the TP.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-024-3277-9

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-024-3277-9viewType=HTML