美国国家海洋和大气管理局Rosenbloom Nan研究小组，报道了了海洋热浪和海洋极端酸化的数月预报。相关论文于2024年11月21日发表在《自然—地球科学》杂志上。

据介绍，海洋热浪和海洋酸化极端事件是指相对于正常变率而言，温度和酸化达到统计上极端水平（第90个百分位数）的时期，可能危及生态系统。由于海洋热浪和海洋酸化极端事件的威胁随着气候变化而增加，需要提前数月至数年对事件进行熟练的预测。先前的工作表明，气候模型可以提前12个月预测关键地区的海洋热浪，但由于导致极端事件的过程的复杂性和观测的稀缺性，预测海洋酸化极端事件一直很困难。

课题组人员以群落地球系统模式季节性到多年大集合为主题，对海洋热浪和两种形式的海洋酸化极端事件进行预测，这些事件由氢离子浓度和文石饱和状态的异常所定义。研究人员表明，该集合可以熟练地预测海洋热浪和海洋酸化极端事件，由文石饱和状态定义为高达1提前一年。

以氢离子浓度定义的海洋酸化极值的预测能力较低，这可能反映了模型与观测状态之间的不匹配。预测能力在东太平洋是最高的，反映了厄尔尼诺的可预测贡献/南方涛动与区域变率的关系。2023年底在2023-2024年厄尔尼诺事件期间做出的预测显示，2024年极有可能发生广泛的海洋热浪和海洋酸化极端事件。

附：英文原文

Title: Multi-month forecasts of marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extremes

Author: Mogen, Samuel C., Lovenduski, Nicole S., Yeager, Stephen G., Capotondi, Antonietta, Jacox, Michael G., Bograd, Stephen, Di Lorenzo, Emanuele, Hazen, Elliot L., Pozo Buil, Mercedes, Kim, Who, Rosenbloom, Nan

Issue&Volume: 2024-11-21

Abstract: Marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extreme events are periods during which temperature and acidification reach statistically extreme levels (90th percentile), relative to normal variability, potentially endangering ecosystems. As the threats from marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extreme events grow with climate change, there is need for skilful predictions of events months to years in advance. Previous work has demonstrated that climate models can predict marine heatwaves up to 12 months in advance in key regions, but forecasting of ocean acidification extreme events has been difficult due to the complexity of the processes leading to extremes and sparse observations. Here we use the Community Earth System Model Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble to make predictions of marine heatwaves and two forms of ocean acidification extreme events, as defined by anomalies in hydrogen ion concentration and aragonite saturation state. We show that the ensemble skilfully predicts marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extreme events as defined by aragonite saturation state up to 1year in advance. Predictive skill for ocean acidification extremes as defined by hydrogen ion concentration is lower, probably reflecting mismatch between model and observed state. Skill is highest in the eastern Pacific, reflecting the predictable contribution of El Nio/Southern Oscillation to regional variability. A forecast generated in late 2023 during the 2023–2024 El Nio event finds high likelihood for widespread marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extreme events in 2024.

DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01593-0

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01593-0