德国赫姆霍兹气候研究所Bevacqua Emanuele课题组最近的研究取得了新进展。研究结果显示，直接和滞后的气候变化影响加剧了2022年欧洲的干旱。该项研究成果发表在2024年10月21日出版的《自然—地球科学》上。
据研究人员介绍，2022年，欧洲遭遇了大面积的夏季干旱，造成了严重的社会经济后果。量化人为引起的气候变化对这种极端事件的影响，有助于为未来的干旱做好准备。
研究团队将观测和气候模型输出与水文和陆地表面模拟相结合，结果发现，中欧和南欧经历了自2002年开始卫星观测以来观测到的最高总储水赤字，这可能代表了过去60年来最高和最广泛的土壤水分亏缺。虽然降水不足是土壤水分干旱的主要驱动因素，但人类活动引起的全球变暖通过增加蒸发，对干旱强度及其空间范围的贡献超过30%。
研究发现，气候变化贡献的14-41%是由2022年水文年之前发生的变暖驱动的土壤干燥介导的，这表明考虑滞后气候变化效应，以避免低估相关风险的重要性。人为引起的气候变化，对观测到的极低的河流流量具有类似的影响。研究结果强调，全球变暖对干旱的影响已经开始，广泛且持久，并且未来干旱风险可能会随着人类活动引起的进一步变暖而升级。
附：英文原文
Title: Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought
Author: Bevacqua, Emanuele, Rakovec, Oldrich, Schumacher, Dominik L., Kumar, Rohini, Thober, Stephan, Samaniego, Luis, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Zscheischler, Jakob
Issue&Volume: 2024-10-21
Abstract: In 2022, Europe faced an extensive summer drought with severe socioeconomic consequences. Quantifying the influence of human-induced climate change on such an extreme event can help prepare for future droughts. Here, by combining observations and climate model outputs with hydrological and land-surface simulations, we show that Central and Southern Europe experienced the highest observed total water storage deficit since satellite observations began in 2002, probably representing the highest and most widespread soil moisture deficit in the past six decades. While precipitation deficits primarily drove the soil moisture drought, human-induced global warming contributed to over 30% of the drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation. We identify that 14–41% of the climate change contribution was mediated by the warming-driven drying of the soil that occurred before the hydrological year of 2022, indicating the importance of considering lagged climate change effects to avoid underestimating associated risks. Human-induced climate change had qualitatively similar effects on the extremely low observed river discharges. These results highlight that global warming effects on droughts are already underway, widespread and long lasting, and that drought risk may escalate with further human-induced warming in the future.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01559-2