极其精确的地球全球辐射冷却的无偏蒙特卡罗估算，这一成果由法国保罗萨巴蒂尔大学
研究人员表明，非线性蒙特卡罗方法的最新进展允许范式转变——可以通过单一模型对地球对太空的红外冷却进行完全无偏估计，整合全球范围内和多年来分子气体能量跃迁的最精细光谱模型，而所有这些需要的的计算成本都非常低(几秒钟)。
据介绍，地球的辐射冷却是气候的一个关键驱动因素。确定它如何受到温室气体浓度的影响是气候变化科学的一个核心问题。由于辐射传输过程的复杂性，目前估算这种冷却的实践需要开发和使用一套辐射传输模型，其准确性随着该团队从局部、瞬时估算到全球和长期(几十年)的全球估算而降低。
附：英文原文
Title: Spectrally refined unbiased Monte Carlo estimate of the Earth’s global radiative cooling
Author: Nyffenegger-Péré, Yaniss, Armante, Raymond, Bati, Mégane, Blanco, Stéphane, Dufresne, Jean-Louis, Hafi, Mouna El, Eymet, Vincent, Forest, Vincent, Fournier, Richard, Gautrais, Jacques, Lebrun, Raphal, Mellado, Nicolas, Mourtaday, Nada, Paulin, Mathias
Issue&Volume: 2024-1-22
Abstract: The Earth’s radiative cooling is a key driver of climate. Determining how it is affected by greenhouse gas concentration is a core question in climate-change sciences. Due to the complexity of radiative transfer processes, current practices to estimate this cooling require the development and use of a suite of radiative transfer models whose accuracy diminishes as we move from local, instantaneous estimates to global estimates over the whole globe and over long periods of time (decades). Here, we show that recent advances in nonlinear Monte Carlo methods allow a paradigm shift: a completely unbiased estimate of the Earth’s infrared cooling to space can be produced using a single model, integrating the most refined spectroscopic models of molecular gas energy transitions over a global scale and over years, all at a very low computational cost (a few seconds).
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2315492121
Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2315492121