德国慕尼黑路德维希-马克西米利安大学 Gabriel, Alice-Agnes及其研究团队，在研究2019年山脊断裂序列的动力、相互作用和延迟中取得新进展。相关论文于2023年5月24日发表在《自然》杂志上。

研究人员展示了20多年来加州最大地震的数据同化的三维动态断裂模型: 瑟尔斯谷的矩震级(M_w)为6.4，山脊序列的矩震级为7.1，它断裂了非垂直准正交共轭断层系统的多个部分，实验模型使用超级计算来寻找两次地震之间的联系。研究团队利用地震物理学解释强震、远震、野外测绘、高速全球定位系统和空间大地测量数据集。

研究发现，区域构造、环境长期和短期应力以及由超压流体和低动态摩擦驱动的动态和静态断层系统相互作用，对于理解该序列的动态和延迟是至关重要的。研究证明了在协调密集地震记录、三维区域结构和应力模型时，基于物理学和数据驱动的联合方法，可用于确定断层系统和地震序列的动态学。研究人员预测，对大型观测数据集的物理学解释将对减少未来的地质灾害产生变革性的影响。

据介绍，观测的困难和地震物理学的复杂性使地震灾害评估在很大程度上是经验性的。尽管大地测量、地震和野外观测的质量越来越高，但与数据驱动的地震成像存在明显差异，基于物理的模型难以解释所有观察到的动态复杂性。

附：英文原文

Title: Dynamics, interactions and delays of the 2019 Ridgecrest rupture sequence

Author: Taufiqurrahman, Taufiq, Gabriel, Alice-Agnes, Li, Duo, Ulrich, Thomas, Li, Bo, Carena, Sara, Verdecchia, Alessandro, Gallovi, Frantiek

Issue&Volume: 2023-05-24

Abstract: The observational difficulties and the complexity of earthquake physics have rendered seismic hazard assessment largely empirical. Despite increasingly high-quality geodetic, seismic and field observations, data-driven earthquake imaging yields stark differences and physics-based models explaining all observed dynamic complexities are elusive. Here we present data-assimilated three-dimensional dynamic rupture models of California’s biggest earthquakes in more than 20years: the moment magnitude (M_w) 6.4 Searles Valley and M_w7.1 Ridgecrest sequence, which ruptured multiple segments of a non-vertical quasi-orthogonal conjugate fault system. Our models use supercomputing to find the link between the two earthquakes. We explain strong-motion, teleseismic, field mapping, high-rate global positioning system and space geodetic datasets with earthquake physics. We find that regional structure, ambient long- and short-term stress, and dynamic and static fault system interactions driven by overpressurized fluids and low dynamic friction are conjointly crucial to understand the dynamics and delays of the sequence. We demonstrate that a joint physics-based and data-driven approach can be used to determine the mechanics of complex fault systems and earthquake sequences when reconciling dense earthquake recordings, three-dimensional regional structure and stress models. We foresee that physics-based interpretation of big observational datasets will have a transformative impact on future geohazard mitigation.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-05985-x

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05985-x