近日，以色列魏茨曼科学研究所Chemke Rei和Yuval Janni认为人为影响削弱了北半球热带环流。相关论文发表在2023年4月17日出版的《自然》杂志上。

研究人员使用海平面气压测量来限制哈德利环流近期的变化并表明，与最新的一套气候模型一致，环流在近几十年内已经大幅度减弱。研究进一步证明，环流的减弱可以归因于人为排放量，这增加了我们对人类引起的热带气候变化预测的信心。最近人类引起的气流减弱表明，考虑到低纬度环流的巨大气候影响，其对区域热带-亚热带气候产生了更广泛的影响。

据悉，通过解释热带地区部分向极地大气热量和水分的运输，哈德利环流在很大程度上影响着低纬度地区降水和温度的纬度的模式。为了应对人类活动引起的气候变化，准确的评估哈德利环流对人为排放的响应是至关重要的。然而，目前，北半球近期哈德利环流的强度变化很不稳定。相关表现为气候模型模拟了环流减弱，且大气再分析大多显示了环流增强，但研究人员发现，在环流强度方面，大气再分析存在人为偏差，这导致人类的排放量对近期哈德利环流的变化产生了未知影响。

附：英文原文

Title: Human-induced weakening of the Northern Hemisphere tropical circulation

Author: Chemke, Rei, Yuval, Janni

Issue&Volume: 2023-04-17

Abstract: By accounting for most of the poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport in the tropics, the Hadley circulation largely affects the latitudinal patterns of precipitation and temperature at low latitudes. To increase our preparednesses for human-induced climate change, it is thus critical to accurately assess the response of the Hadley circulation to anthropogenic emissions. However, at present, there is a large uncertainty in recent Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation strength changes. Not only do climate models simulate a weakening of the circulation, whereas atmospheric reanalyses mostly show an intensification of the circulation, but atmospheric reanalyses were found to have artificial biases in the strength of the circulation, resulting in unknown impacts of human emissions on recent Hadley circulation changes. Here we constrain the recent changes in the Hadley circulation using sea-level pressure measurements and show that, in agreement with the latest suite of climate models, the circulation has considerably weakened over recent decades. We further show that the weakening of the circulation is attributable to anthropogenic emissions, which increases our confidence in human-induced tropical climate change projections. Given the large climate impacts of the circulation at low latitudes, the recent human-induced weakening of the flow suggests wider consequences for the regional tropical–subtropical climate.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-05903-1

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05903-1