在这项研究中，研究人员表明，干旱加剧的速率在亚季节时间尺度上加快了，报告指出，在过去的64年中，全球74%以上的地区将面临更多突发性干旱的过渡事件。这种转变与人为引起的气候变化中的蒸散和降水不足的异常放大有关。未来，这种转变预计将扩展到大部分大陆区域，在高排放情景下会更大幅度的增加。研究还强调了在变暖的未来适应更快发生的干旱的紧迫性。
据悉，全球范围内干旱频繁发生，其快速发作对干旱监测和预测能力提出了挑战。然而研究人员对于快速干旱是否已经成为新常态还没有达成共识，因为缓慢干旱也可能增加。
附：英文原文
Title: A global transition to flash droughts under climate change
Author: Xing Yuan, Yumiao Wang, Peng Ji, Peili Wu, Justin Sheffield, Jason A. Otkin
Issue&Volume: 2023-04-14
Abstract: Flash droughts have occurred frequently worldwide, with a rapid onset that challenges drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities. However, there is no consensus on whether flash droughts have become the new normal because slow droughts may also increase. In this study, we show that drought intensification rates have sped up over subseasonal time scales and that there has been a transition toward more flash droughts over 74% of the global regions identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Extreme Events during the past 64 years. The transition is associated with amplified anomalies of evapotranspiration and precipitation deficit caused by anthropogenic climate change. In the future, the transition is projected to expand to most land areas, with larger increases under higher-emission scenarios. These findings underscore the urgency for adapting to faster-onset droughts in a warmer future.
DOI: abn6301
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn6301