美国地质调查局Sheel Bansal小组取得一项新突破。他们最近的研究取得了新进展，即北美最大的湿地复合体预计将大幅增加甲烷排放量。相关论文于2023年3月1日发表在《科学进展》杂志上。

该团队利用一个特别大的CH₄通量数据集(约19,000个室内测量值)和遥感信息，模拟了北美最大的湿地复合体草原坑洞地区(PPR)的地块和景观尺度湿地CH₄排放。地块尺度的CH₄排放受水文、温度、植被和湿地大小的影响。历史上，草原坑洞地区湿地景观尺度CH₄排放在很大程度上依赖于湿地总面积。然而，无论未来的湿地范围如何，在中度或重度变暖情景下，预计到2100年草原坑洞地区 CH₄排放量将分别增加两到三倍。研究结果表明，减少大气中CH₄浓度的国际努力应共同考虑人为和自然排放，以维持到本世纪末的气候减缓目标。

据悉，由于人类引起的气候变暖，来自水生生态系统的天然甲烷(CH₄)排放量可能会增加，尽管增加的幅度还不确定。

附：英文原文

Title: Large increases in methane emissions expected from North America’s largest wetland complex

Author: Sheel Bansal, Max Post van der Burg, Rachel R. Fern, John W. Jones, Rachel Lo, Owen P. McKenna, Brian A. Tangen, Zhen Zhang, Robert A. Gleason

Issue&Volume: 2023-03-01

Abstract: Natural methane (CH₄) emissions from aquatic ecosystems may rise because of human-induced climate warming, although the magnitude of increase is highly uncertain. Using an exceptionally large CH₄ flux dataset (~19,000 chamber measurements) and remotely sensed information, we modeled plot- and landscape-scale wetland CH₄ emissions from the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), North America’s largest wetland complex. Plot-scale CH₄ emissions were driven by hydrology, temperature, vegetation, and wetland size. Historically, landscape-scale PPR wetland CH₄ emissions were largely dependent on total wetland extent. However, regardless of future wetland extent, PPR CH₄ emissions are predicted to increase by two- or threefold by 2100 under moderate or severe warming scenarios, respectively. Our findings suggest that international efforts to decrease atmospheric CH₄ concentrations should jointly account for anthropogenic and natural emissions to maintain climate mitigation targets to the end of the century.

DOI: ade1112

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ade1112