北京师范大学张强和申泽西带领课题组近日取得一项新成果。他们发现海洋气候变化威胁着亚洲水塔的永续性。2023年3月1日，国际知名学术期刊《自然》发表了这一成果。

该课题组将将2003-2016年期间南部青藏高原每月约1Gt的陆地蓄水下降，归因于来自北大西洋东南部降水量减去蒸发量(PME)的西风带携带亏缺。研究进一步表明，亚洲高山阻断了降水量减去蒸发量的亏缺向青藏高原中部的传播，导致陆地蓄水每月增加约0.5Gt。

此外，变暖导致的降雪和冰川融化以及干燥导致的陆地蓄水耗损削弱了亚洲高山山脉的阻挡，导致自2009年以来青藏高原的陆地蓄水赤字持续向北扩展。2020-2021年期间卫星观测验证的两种排放情景下的未来预测表明，到21世纪末，青藏高原中高达84%(情景SSP245)和97%(情景SSP585)可能受到陆地蓄水赤字的影响。研究强调，亚洲高山的水系统正朝着不可持续的方向发展，这可能会加剧下游的水资源压力。

据悉，青藏高原(TP)周围的亚洲高山(HMA)的水资源可持续性——被称为亚洲水塔——已经引发了广泛的关注，因为亚洲高山保护数百万人免受水资源压力。然而，人们对青藏高原上方陆地蓄水(TWS)中观察到的异质性趋势背后的机制仍然知之甚少。

附：英文原文

Title: Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia’s water tower

Author: Zhang, Qiang, Shen, Zexi, Pokhrel, Yadu, Farinotti, Daniel, Singh, Vijay P., Xu, Chong-Yu, Wu, Wenhuan, Wang, Gang

Issue&Volume: 2023-03-01

Abstract: Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)—known as Asia’s water tower—has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress. However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the TP remain poorly understood. Here we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and satellite observations to attribute about 1Gt of monthly TWS decline in the southern TP during 2003–2016 to westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation (PME) from the southeast North Atlantic. We further show that HMA blocks the propagation of PME deficit into the central TP, causing a monthly TWS increase by about 0.5Gt. Furthermore, warming-induced snow and glacial melt as well as drying-induced TWS depletion in HMA weaken the blocking of HMA’s mountains, causing persistent northward expansion of the TP’s TWS deficit since 2009. Future projections under two emissions scenarios verified by satellite observations during 2020–2021 indicate that, by the end of the twenty-first century, up to 84% (for scenario SSP245) and 97% (for scenario SSP585) of the TP could be afflicted by TWS deficits. Our findings indicate a trajectory towards unsustainable water systems in HMA that could exacerbate downstream water stress.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05643-8