美国康奈尔大学Manning, Sturt W.课题组的一项最新研究指出，严重的多年干旱与大约公元前1198–1196年的赫梯崩溃相吻合。相关论文于2023年2月8日发表于国际顶尖学术期刊《自然》杂志上。

课题组研究赫梯帝国在公元前1200年左右的崩溃。赫梯人是跨越5个世纪的古代世界强国之一，帝国以安纳托利亚半干旱地区为中心，政治和社会经济联系遍及整个古代近东和东地中海，尽管长期面临经常性和交叉的社会政治、经济和环境挑战，但在很长一段时间内证明了其韧性。

对安纳托利亚中部当代杜松树的年轮宽度和稳定同位素记录的检查提供了一个高分辨率的干燥记录。该分析确定了大约公元前1198年到1196年(±3)之间的一个异常严重的连续干旱期，这可能预示了一个临界点，并标志着可以压倒当代风险缓冲实践的事件类型。

据悉，气候变化在很大程度上改变人类历史的潜力是一个紧迫的问题，但不同类型的气候变化的具体影响仍然未知。这个问题可以通过古气候和考古数据来解决。例如，在公元前1200年左右，300年的低频率转向更干燥、更凉爽的气候条件，这一转变经常与地中海东部和近东地区的几个古代文明的崩溃联系在一起。然而，同步气候和人类历史尺度关联的精确细节还缺乏。考古历史记录包含了人类社会成功适应低频气候变化的多个实例。很可能连续多年发生的罕见的、意外的极端气候事件可能会使人口超越适应能力和数百年的恢复力实践。

附：英文原文

Title: Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 bc

Author: Manning, Sturt W., Kocik, Cindy, Lorentzen, Brita, Sparks, Jed P.

Issue&Volume: 2023-02-08

Abstract: The potential of climate change to substantially alter human history is a pressing concern, but the specific effects of different types of climate change remain unknown. This question can be addressed using palaeoclimatic and archaeological data. For instance, a 300-year, low-frequency shift to drier, cooler climate conditions around 1200_BC is frequently associated with the collapse of several ancient civilizations in the Eastern Mediterranean and Near East. However, the precise details of synchronized climate and human-history-scale associations are lacking. The archaeological–historical record contains multiple instances of human societies successfully adapting to low-frequency climate change. It is likely that consecutive multi-year occurrences of rare, unexpected extreme climatic events may push a population beyond adaptation and centuries-old resilience practices. Here we examine the collapse of the Hittite Empire around 1200_BC. The Hittites were one of the great powers in the ancient world across five centuries, with an empire centred in a semi-arid region in Anatolia with political and socioeconomic interconnections throughout the ancient Near East and Eastern Mediterranean, which for a long time proved resilient despite facing regular and intersecting sociopolitical, economic and environmental challenges. Examination of ring width and stable isotope records obtained from contemporary juniper trees in central Anatolia provides a high-resolution dryness record. This analysis identifies an unusually severe continuous dry period from around 1198 to 1196 (±3) _BC, potentially indicating a tipping point, and signals the type of episode that can overwhelm contemporary risk-buffering practices.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05693-y