中国科学院地球环境研究所谭亮成团队近日的研究取得一项新发现，研究揭示了气候变化对中亚国家食物安全的影响。相关论文于2023年12月15日发表于国际顶尖学术期刊《中国科学：地球科学》杂志上。

基于1990年至2019年在中亚五个国家获取的面板数据，研究团队开发了一个C-D-C模型，以研究气候变化如何影响该地区的粮食安全并预测未来趋势。研究发现，在过去的30年里，这五个中亚国家的粮食安全水平总体上有所提高。哈萨克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦的粮食安全水平分别为最高和最低。年平均气温和降水量与区域粮食安全呈倒U型关系，其中对哈萨克斯坦粮食安全的正向影响最大。极端高温和低温严重影响了研究区域的粮食安全，其中土库曼斯坦受到的负面影响最为严重。霜冻日数对粮食安全无显著影响。

对未来气候的分析表明，从2030年到2090年，中亚地区的温度和降水将继续增加，这将对这些国家的粮食安全产生负面影响。研究强调，建议中亚国家加强对气候风险的认识，加强气候科学研究，提前制定多种适应战略。同时，加强国际合作，有效减少温室气体排放，保持保障粮食安全的能力。

据悉，全球变暖的当前和潜在影响已引起社会各界对粮食安全的广泛关注。中亚国家地处亚洲内陆腹地，生态环境脆弱，农业技术水平较低，尤其容易受到气候变化的严重威胁。

附：英文原文

Title: Impact of climate change on food security in the Central Asian countries

Author: Fang SU, Yu LIU, Lvfan CHEN, Rustam OROZBAEV , Liangcheng TAN

Issue&Volume: 2023-12-15

Abstract: The current and potential impacts of global warming have generated widespread concerns about food security among all sectors of society. Central Asian countries located deep in the interior of Asia with fragile ecological environments and lower agricultural technology are particularly more prone to severe threats from climate change. Based on panel data acquired in five Central Asian countries from 1990 to 2019, a C-D-C model was developed to study how climate change affects food security in the region and to predict future trends. The study found that the level of food security has generally increased for these five Central Asian countries over the past 30years, with Kazakhstan and Tajikistan having the highest and lowest food security levels, respectively. The average annual temperature and precipitation exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with the region’s food security, with the most positive effect on the food security of Kazakhstan. Extremely high and low temperatures have significantly affected food security in the studied region, with Turkmenistan experiencing the most significant negative impacts. The number of frost days had no significant effect on food security. An analysis of future climate showed that the temperature and precipitation in Central Asia will continue to increase from 2030 to 2090, which will negatively impact the food security of these countries. It is recommended that the Central Asian countries enhance their understanding of climate risks, strengthen scientific climate research, and develop multiple adaptation strategies in advance. Simultaneously, they are encouraged to consolidate international cooperation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions effectively and maintaining the ability to ensure food security.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-022-1198-4

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/10.1007/s11430-022-1198-4