云南大学陈峰等报道了在过去的一千年里，东南亚对青藏高原径流的生态依赖。2023年11月13日出版的《自然—地球科学》发表了这项成果。
研究团队展示了自 1000CE 到 2100CE，湄公河、萨尔温江和雅鲁藏布江，基于树木年轮的年度分辨率和绝对年代测定的河流流量重建，并辅以相应的模型预测。研究人员指出了在印度支那半岛的河流流量和旱季植被指数之间的显著正相关性，揭示了西藏水塔对于东南亚生态和社会系统的功能和生产力的重要性。流变率与北大西洋和北太平洋低频海表温度变率有关。研究发现，河流流量极值与中世纪时期、当地人口的明显迁移相吻合，包括从 11-16 世纪 Angkor 的占领和随后的崩溃。研究预测，到本世纪末，未来的河流流量变化将达到甚至超过历史范围，给东南亚地区带来前所未有的风险。
据介绍，发源于青藏高原的大河系统影响着全球一半以上人口的福祉，且十分重要。然而，前人研究对东南亚大部分地区水资源可利用性的历史范围和未来变化的理解，受到短期观测记录和复杂环境因素的限制。
附：英文原文
Title: Southeast Asian ecological dependency on Tibetan Plateau streamflow over the last millennium
Author: Chen, Feng, Man, Wenmin, Wang, Shijie, Esper, Jan, Meko, David, Bntgen, Ulf, Yuan, Yujiang, Hadad, Martn, Hu, Mao, Zhao, Xiaoen, Roig, Fidel A., Fang, Ouya, Chen, Youping, Zhang, Heli, Shang, Huaming, Yu, Shulong, Luo, Xian, He, Daming, Chen, Fahu
Issue&Volume: 2023-11-13
Abstract: The great river systems originating from the Tibetan Plateau are pivotal for the wellbeing of more than half the global population. Our understanding of historical ranges and future changes in water availability for much of Southeast Asia is, however, limited by short observational records and complex environmental factors. Here we present annually resolved and absolutely dated tree ring-based streamflow reconstructions for the Mekong, Salween and Yarlung Tsangpo rivers since 1000 CE, which are supplemented by corresponding model projections until 2100 CE. We show a significant positive correlation between streamflow and dry season vegetation indices over the Indochinese Peninsula, revealing the importance of the Tibetan Water Tower for the functioning and productivity of ecological and societal systems in Southeast Asia. The streamflow variability is associated with low-frequency sea-surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. We find that streamflow extremes coincide with distinct shifts in local populations that occurred during medieval times, including the occupation and subsequent collapse of Angkor Wat from the eleventh to the sixteenth century. Finally, our projections suggest that future streamflow changes will reach, or even exceed, historical ranges by the end of this century, posing unprecedented risks for Southeast Asia.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01320-1
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01320-1