该研究组提出了除冰盖以外，以每个冰川的数据校准为标准，共享社会经济路径的全球冰川预测。在全球温度变化情景下，相对于2015年，到2100年，冰川预计将损失其质量的26±6%(+1.5°C)至41±11%(+4°C)。这相当于海平面的90±26 ~ 154±44毫米，将导致49±9 ~ 83±7%的冰川消失。
质量损失与温度升高呈线性相关，温度升高降低了质量损失。根据缔约方会议(COP26)作出的气候承诺，到2100年，全球平均气温预计将上升+2.7°C，这将导致海平面上升115±40毫米，并导致大多数中纬度地区出现大范围的冰川消融。
研究人员表示，冰川的质量损耗影响海平面上升、水资源和自然灾害。
附：英文原文
Title: Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters
Author: David R. Rounce, Regine Hock, Fabien Maussion, Romain Hugonnet, William Kochtitzky, Matthias Huss, Etienne Berthier, Douglas Brinkerhoff, Loris Compagno, Luke Copland, Daniel Farinotti, Brian Menounos, Robert W. McNabb
Issue&Volume: 2023-01-06
Abstract: Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 ± 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.
DOI: abo1324
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo1324