为了评估这种风险，该研究组评估了来自整个热带地区的483个树木年轮年表的干旱影响，发现在1930年以来最干旱的10%的年份中，茎干生长总体适度下降（2.5%，95%可信区间为2.2至2.7%）。在25%的情况下，茎部生长下降超过10%，在炎热和干燥的地方，裸子植物的茎部生长下降幅度大于被子植物。生长下降通常不会持续干旱年份，并且在潮湿年份通过生长刺激部分缓解。因此，迄今为止，通过树干生长的泛热带森林碳固存表现出了抗旱能力，然而，在未来的气候变化下，这种抗旱能力可能会减弱。
据了解，在人为气候变化的影响下，日益增加的干旱压力可能危及热带森林在木质生物质中捕获碳并作为长期二氧化碳汇的潜力。
附：英文原文
Title: Pantropical tree rings show small effects of drought on stem growth
Author: Pieter A. Zuidema, Peter Groenendijk, Mizanur Rahman, Valerie Trouet, Abrham Abiyu, Rodolfo Acua-Soto, Eduardo Adenesky-Filho, Raquel Alfaro-Sánchez, Claudio Roberto AnholettoJr, José Roberto Vieira Arago, Gabriel Assis-Pereira, Claudia C. Astudillo-Sánchez, Ana Carolina Barbosa, Giovanna Battipaglia, Hans Beeckman, Paulo Cesar Botosso, Nils Bourland, Achim Bruning, Roel Brienen, Matthew Brookhouse, Supaporn Buajan, Brendan M. Buckley, J. Julio Camarero, Artemio Carrillo-Parra, Gregório Ceccantini, Librado R. Centeno-Erguera, Julián Cerano-Paredes, Rosalinda Cervantes-Martínez, Wirong Chanthorn, Ya-Jun Chen, Bruno Barante Ladvocat Cintra, Eladio Heriberto Cornejo-Oviedo, Otoniel Cortés-Cortés, Clayane Matos Costa, Camille Couralet, Doris Bianca Crispín-De-La-Cruz, Rosanne D’arrigo, Diego A. David, Maaike De Ridder, Jorge Ignacio Del Valle, Mário DobnerJr, Jean-Louis Doucet, Oliver Dünisch, Brian J. Enquist, Karin Esemann-Quadros, Gerardo Esquivel-Arriaga, Ze-Xin Fan, Adeline Fayolle, Tatiele Anete Bergamo Fenilli, M. Eugenia Ferrero, Esther Fichtler, Patrick M. Finnegan, Claudia Fontana, Kainana S. Francisco, Pei-Li Fu, Franklin Galvo, Aster Gebrekirstos, Jorge A. Giraldo, Emanuel Gloor, Milena Godoy-Veiga, Daniela Granato-Souza, Anthony Guerra, Kristof Haneca, Grant Logan Harley, Ingo Heinrich, Gerhard Helle, Bruna Hornink, Wannes Hubau, Janet G. Inga, Mahmuda Islam, Yu-Mei Jiang, Mark Kaib, Zakia Hassan Khamisi, Marcin Koprowski, Eva Layme, A. Joshua Leffler, Gauthier Ligot, Claudio Sergio Lisi, Neil J. Loader, Francisco De Almeida Lobo, Giuliano Maselli Locosselli, Tomaz Longhi-Santos, Lidio Lopez, María I. López-Hernández, José Luís Penetra Cerveira Lousada, Rubén D. Manzanedo, Amanda K. Marcon, Justin T. Maxwell, Omar N. Mendoza-Villa, ítallo Romany Nunes Menezes, Mulugeta Mokria, Valdinez Ribeiro Montóia, Eddy Moors, Miyer Moreno, Miguel Angel Muiz-Castro, Cristina Nabais, Anuttara Nathalang, Justine Ngoma, Francisco De Carvalho NogueiraJr, Juliano Morales Oliveira, Gabriela Morais Olmedo, Daigard Ricardo Ortega-Rodriguez, Carmen Eugenia Rodríguez Ortíz, Mariana Alves Pagotto, Shankar Panthi, Kathelyn Paredes-Villanueva, Gonzalo Pérez-de-Lis, Laura Patricia Ponce Calderón, Leif Armando Portal-Cahuana, Darwin Alexander Pucha-Cofrep, Nathsuda Pumijumnong, Paulo Quadri, Jorge Andrés Ramírez, Edilson Jimmy Requena-Rojas, Judith Reyes-Flores, Adauto de Souza Ribeiro, Iain Robertson, Fidel Alejandro Roig, José Guilherme Roquette, Ernesto Alonso Rubio-Camacho, Raúl Sánchez-Salguero, Ute Sass-Klaassen, Jochen Schngart, Marcelo Callegari Scipioni, Paul R. Sheppard, Lucas C.R. Silva, Franziska Slotta, Leroy Soria-Díaz, Luciana K.V.S. Sousa, James H. Speer, Matthew D. Therrell, Ginette Ticse-Otarola, Mario Tomazello-Filho, Max C.A. Torbenson, Pantana Tor-Ngern, Ramzi Touchan, Jan Van den Bulcke, Lorenzo Vázquez-Selem, Adín H. Velázquez-Pérez, Alejandro Venegas-González, Ricardo Villalba, Jose Villanueva-Diaz, Mart Vlam, George Vourlitis, Christian Wehenkel, Tommy Wils, Erika S. Zavaleta, Eshetu Asfaw Zewdu, Yong-Jiang Zhang, Zhe-Kun Zhou
Issue&Volume: 2025-07-31
Abstract: Increasing drought pressure under anthropogenic climate change may jeopardize the potential of tropical forests to capture carbon in woody biomass and act as a long-term carbon dioxide sink. To evaluate this risk, we assessed drought impacts in 483 tree-ring chronologies from across the tropics and found an overall modest stem growth decline (2.5% with a 95% confidence interval of 2.2 to 2.7%) during the 10% driest years since 1930. Stem growth declines exceeded 10% in 25% of cases and were larger at hotter and drier sites and for gymnosperms compared with angiosperms. Growth declines generally did not outlast drought years and were partially mitigated by growth stimulation in wet years. Thus, pantropical forest carbon sequestration through stem growth has hitherto shown drought resilience that may, however, diminish under future climate change.
DOI: adq6607
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq6607