清华大学Song, Fengfei小组取得一项新突破。他们报道了气候变暖时强烈热带气旋（tc）的季节性推进。2023年9月27日出版的《自然》发表了这项成果。

该课题组研究人员发现，自20世纪80年代以来，在大多数热带海洋中，强烈的tc出现了显著的季节性推进，其早移率为北半球和南半球每10年的日数。强tc的季节性推进与快速强化事件的季节性推进密切相关，有利的海洋条件较早出现有利于快速强化事件的季节性推进。

利用多个全球气候模式、大整体和个别强迫实验的模拟，可以探测到有利海洋条件的早期出现，并且主要是由温室气体强迫驱动的。强tc的季节性推进将增加与其他极端降雨事件相交的可能性，这些极端降雨事件通常在夏季达到峰值，从而导致不成比例的影响。

据悉，强热带气旋(TCs)通常在秋季达到峰值，对生命和财产具有破坏性影响，因此确定强热带气旋是否可能发生任何变化至关重要。

附：英文原文

Title: Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Author: Shan, Kaiyue, Lin, Yanluan, Chu, Pao-Shin, Yu, Xiping, Song, Fengfei

Issue&Volume: 2023-09-27

Abstract: Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn1,2, have destructive impacts on life and property3,4,5, making it crucial to determine whether any changes in intense TCs are likely to occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s in most tropical oceans, with earlier-shifting rates of 3.7 and 3.2days per decade for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This seasonal advance of intense TCs is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions. Using simulations from multiple global climate models, large ensembles and individual forcing experiments, the earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions is detectable and primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing. The seasonal advance of intense TCs will increase the likelihood of intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, which usually peak in summer6,7, thereby leading to disproportionate impacts.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06544-0

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06544-0