近日，清华大学关大博教授及其课题组报道了全球钢铁厂二氧化碳排放和碳中和路径。相关论文发表在2023年9月20日出版的《自然》杂志上。

研究人员编制了一份 4883 家钢铁厂的二氧化碳排放清单，以及它们的技术特征，包括加工路线和操作细节（状态、年龄、操作年限等）。研究确定合适的排放去除或零排放技术，并将其与特定的处理路线相匹配，或者此后将其定义为每个工厂的特定技术脱碳路线图。研究发现，57 ％的全球工厂有 8-24 年的运行时间，这是低碳技术的改造窗口。遵循电厂运行特性的低碳改造的关键是将升温限制在 2 ℃，而先进的改造可能有助于将升温限制在 1.5 ℃。

如果每座电厂比计划的改造时间表提前 5 年进行改造，这可能引起 2020 年至 2050 年全球二氧化碳排放量累计减排 69.6（±52％）千兆吨（Gt）二氧化碳，几乎是 2021 年全球二氧化碳排放量的两倍。研究结果提供了与钢铁厂生产加工相关的二氧化碳排放模式的详细图片，说明了通过每个工厂的努力，实现净零排放目标的脱碳途径。

据介绍，高耗能的钢铁工业贡献了 2019 年全球工业二氧化碳排放量的约25 ％，因此研究高耗能的钢铁工业二氧化碳排放量对减缓气候变化至关重要。尽管众多研究者在国家和全球层面讨论了钢铁工业的脱碳潜力，但工厂特定的缓解潜力和技术驱动的路径仍不清楚，其累积决定了全球钢铁行业净零转换的进程。

附：英文原文

Title: Global iron and steel plant CO₂ emissions and carbon-neutrality pathways

Author: Lei, Tianyang, Wang, Daoping, Yu, Xiang, Ma, Shijun, Zhao, Weichen, Cui, Can, Meng, Jing, Tao, Shu, Guan, Dabo

Issue&Volume: 2023-09-20

Abstract: The highly energy-intensive iron and steel industry contributed about 25%  of global industrial CO₂ emissions in 2019 and is therefore critical for climate-change mitigation. Despite discussions of decarbonization potentials at national and global levels, plant-specific mitigation potentials and technologically driven pathways remain unclear, which cumulatively determines the progress of net-zero transition of the global iron and steel sector. Here we develop a CO₂ emissions inventory of 4,883 individual iron and steel plants along with their technical characteristics, including processing routes and operating details (status, age, operation-years etc.). We identify and match appropriate emission-removal or zero-emission technologies to specific possessing routes, or what we define thereafter as a techno-specific decarbonization road map for every plant. We find that 57% of global plants have 8–24 operational years, which is the retrofitting window for low-carbon technologies. Low-carbon retrofitting following the operational characteristics of plants is key for limiting warming to 2°C, whereas advanced retrofitting may help limit warming to 1.5°C. If each plant were retrofitted 5years earlier than the planned retrofitting schedule, this could lead to cumulative global emissions reductions of 69.6(±52%)gigatonnes (Gt)CO₂ from 2020 to 2050, almost double that of global CO₂ emissions in 2021. Our results provide a detailed picture of CO₂ emission patterns associated with production processing of iron and steel plants, illustrating the decarbonization pathway to the net-zero-emissions target with the efforts from each plant.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06486-7

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06486-7