2023年8月2日，瑞士联邦森林积雪和景观研究所Bjorklund, Jesper研究组在《自然》杂志发表论文，他们提出Fennoscandian半岛的树木年轮显示了比中世纪更温暖的现代气候。

研究人员表明，Fennoscandian半岛当前的气候远远比中世纪的暖和。这突出了人类活动在气候变暖中的主导作用，甚至在区域范围内，调和了重构和模型模拟之间的不一致。该研究团队使用了长达1170年的漫长的年轮记录，该记录完全依赖于Pinus sylvestris的管胞解剖测量，提供了温暖季节仪器温度变化的高保真测量。因此，研究人员呼吁建立更多这种长达千年的记录，以进一步提高人们的了解，减少区域间乃至最终全球范围内历史和未来气候变化的不确定性。

据了解，地球气候系统模型和各种气候代理资料表明，全球变暖在至少在共同时代是前所未有的。然而，与区域尺度的模拟实验相比，树木年轮代理经常被用来估计中世纪气候异常(950-1250_CE)期间的温度，这些温度类似于或超过上个世纪记录的温度。这不仅对模型和代理的可靠性提出了质疑，也增加了未来气候预测的不确定性。

附：英文原文

Title: Fennoscandian tree-ring anatomy shows a warmer modern than medieval climate

Author: Bjorklund, Jesper, Seftigen, Kristina, Stoffel, Markus, Fonti, Marina V., Kottlow, Sven, Frank, David C., Esper, Jan, Fonti, Patrick, Goosse, Hugues, Grudd, Hkan, Gunnarson, Bjrn E., Nievergelt, Daniel, Pellizzari, Elena, Carrer, Marco, von Arx, Georg

Issue&Volume: 2023-08-02

Abstract: Earth system models and various climate proxy sources indicate global warming is unprecedented during at least the Common Era. However, tree-ring proxies often estimate temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950–1250_CE) that are similar to, or exceed, those recorded for the past century, in contrast to simulation experiments at regional scales. This not only calls into question the reliability of models and proxies but also contributes to uncertainty in future climate projections. Here we show that the current climate of the Fennoscandian Peninsula is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period. This highlights the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in climate warming even at the regional scale, thereby reconciling inconsistencies between reconstructions and model simulations. We used an annually resolved 1,170-year-long tree-ring record that relies exclusively on tracheid anatomical measurements from Pinus sylvestris trees, providing high-fidelity measurements of instrumental temperature variability during the warm season. We therefore call for the construction of more such millennia-long records to further improve our understanding and reduce uncertainties around historical and future climate change at inter-regional and eventually global scales.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06176-4

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06176-4