法国上萨瓦省自然保护区Bosson, J. B.的研究团队提出了冰川退缩导致未来出现新生态系统的新看法。该研究于2023年8月16日发表于国际一流学术期刊《自然》杂志上。

研究人员表明，到2100年，南极和格陵兰冰盖以外的所有冰川的下降可能会产生新的陆地、海洋和淡水生态系统，其面积从尼泊尔(149,000-55,000 km²)到芬兰(339,000-99,000 km²)不等。研究分析表明，取决于气候条件，冰川面积的损失将从22.8%到51.15%不等。在冰川消退地区，新兴生态系统的特点是极端到温和的生态条件，为适应寒冷的物种提供避难所，或有利于初级生产力和通用物种。

探索冰川地区的未来，突出了面对气候变化、生物多样性丧失和淡水稀缺，冰川和新兴后冰川生态系统的重要性。研究发现，不到一半的冰川区位于保护区。研究人员赞同最近宣布的 2025 年为国际冰川保护年的联合国决议和全球生物多样性框架，强调需要紧急同时加强减缓气候变化和就地保护这些生态系统，以确保其存在、功能和价值。

据悉，与人为气候变化相关的冰川萎缩和冰川后生态系统的发展是正在发生的最快的生态系统变化，具有显著的生态和社会级联后果。然而,据我们所知，没有完整的空间分析来量化或预测这一重要的转变。

附：英文原文

Title: Future emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat

Author: Bosson, J. B., Huss, M., Cauvy-Frauni, S., Clment, J. C., Costes, G., Fischer, M., Poulenard, J., Arthaud, F.

Issue&Volume: 2023-08-16

Abstract: Glacier shrinkage and the development of post-glacial ecosystems related to anthropogenic climate change are some of the fastest ongoing ecosystem shifts, with marked ecological and societal cascading consequences. Yet, no complete spatial analysis exists, to our knowledge, to quantify or anticipate this important changeover. Here we show that by 2100, the decline of all glaciers outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets may produce new terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems over an area ranging from the size of Nepal (149,000 ± 55,000km²) to that of Finland (339,000±99,000km²). Our analysis shows that the loss of glacier area will range from 22±8% to 51±15%, depending on the climate scenario. In deglaciated areas, the emerging ecosystems will be characterized by extreme to mild ecological conditions, offering refuge for cold-adapted species or favouring primary productivity and generalist species. Exploring the future of glacierized areas highlights the importance of glaciers and emerging post-glacial ecosystems in the face of climate change, biodiversity loss and freshwater scarcity. We find that less than half of glacial areas are located in protected areas. Echoing the recent United Nations resolution declaring 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation and the Global Biodiversity Framework, we emphasize the need to urgently and simultaneously enhance climate-change mitigation and the in situ protection of these ecosystems to secure their existence, functioning and values.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06302-2

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06302-2