中国科学院海洋研究所贾凡和中国海洋大学Cai, Wenju等提出，在全球变暖的情况下，连续拉尼娜事件的发生率增加的观点。相关论文发表在2023年7月26日出版的《自然》杂志上。

研究人员使用了未来温室气体预测下的气候模型，从低排放情景下的 19±11% 到高排放情景下的 33±13%，发现连续拉尼娜事件的频率增加 ，这一观点得到了不同模型之间数据一致性的支持。在温室效应变暖的背景下，副热带东北太平洋的平均状态变暖最大值增强了该区域对扰动的热力响应，产生了异常的东风，由于厄尔尼诺暖异常现象，东风比二十世纪更偏向北。

赤道东太平洋暖度最大值进一步增加了向北变宽异常模式的敏感性。向北扩展的东风异常相关的较慢的热量补给有利于促使第一年拉尼娜的冷异常持续到第二年拉尼娜。因此，历史上连续拉尼娜现象期间出现的极端气候现象在二十一世纪可能会更频繁地出现。

据介绍，大多数厄尔尼诺事件是零星发生的，在冬天达到高峰，而拉尼娜现象往往在厄尔尼诺现象之后发展，并持续两年或更长时间。与一年一次的拉尼娜现象相比，连续拉尼娜现象的特点是经向东风更大，因此赤道太平洋的热量补充更慢，使寒冷异常现象持续存在，对全球气候、生态系统和农业产生长期影响。持续多年的拉尼娜事件的未来变化仍然未知。

附：英文原文

Title: Increased occurrences of consecutive La Nia events under global warming

Author: Geng, Tao, Jia, Fan, Cai, Wenju, Wu, Lixin, Gan, Bolan, Jing, Zhao, Li, Shujun, McPhaden, Michael J.

Issue&Volume: 2023-07-26

Abstract: Most El Nino events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter, whereas La Nina tends to develop after an El Nino and last for two years or longer. Relative to single-year La Nina, consecutive La Nina features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific, enabling the cold anomalies to persist, exerting prolonged impacts on global climate, ecosystems and agriculture. Future changes to multi-year-long La Nina events remain unknown. Here, using climate models under future greenhouse-gas forcings, we find an increased frequency of consecutive La Nina ranging from 19±11% in a low-emission scenario to 33±13% in a high-emission scenario, supported by an inter-model consensus stronger in higher-emission scenarios. Under greenhouse warming, a mean-state warming maximum in the subtropical northeastern Pacific enhances the regional thermodynamic response to perturbations, generating anomalous easterlies that are further northward than in the twentieth century in response to El Nino warm anomalies. The sensitivity of the northward-broadened anomaly pattern is further increased by a warming maximum in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The slower heat recharge associated with the northward-broadened easterly anomalies facilitates the cold anomalies of the first-year La Nina to persist into a second-year La Nina. Thus, climate extremes as seen during historical consecutive La Nina episodes probably occur more frequently in the twenty-first century.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06236-9

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06236-9