瑞士苏黎世联邦理工学院Mo, Lidong和Zohner, Constantin M.的课题组，致力于天然林碳潜力全球综合评估工作，近日取得重要进展。相关成果于2023年11月13日发表于《自然》杂志中。

研究人员结合使用几种地面来源和卫星衍生的方法，来评估农业和城市土地以外的全球森林碳潜力的规模。在全球范围内，尽管存在区域差异，但这些预测值表现出显著的一致性，地面来源和卫星推算的估测值之间仅存在 12% 的差异。目前，全球森林碳储量明显低于自然潜在的碳储量，在人类较少的地区，总亏缺量为 226 Gt(模型范围在151-363 Gt 之间)。

大部分具潜在碳储量的自然区域(61%，139Gt C)是在现有森林的地区，在这些地区，生态系统的保护可以使森林恢复到成熟阶段。剩余 39% (887Gt C)具潜在碳储量的自然区域位于森林被砍伐或被分割的地区。尽管森林不能替代减排，但研究结果支持了这样一种观点，即保护、恢复和可持续管理各种森林，为实现全球气候和生物多样性目标作出了宝贵贡献。

据研究人员介绍，森林是一个重要的陆地碳汇，土地利用和气候的人为变化大大缩小了碳汇的规模。使用遥感方法量化全球森林的碳损失估测存在相当大的不确定性，当前研究缺乏一个全面的地面评估基准来衡量这些估测值。

附：英文原文

Title: Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Author: Mo, Lidong, Zohner, Constantin M., Reich, Peter B., Liang, Jingjing, de Miguel, Sergio, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, Renner, Susanne S., van den Hoogen, Johan, Araza, Arnan, Herold, Martin, Mirzagholi, Leila, Ma, Haozhi, Averill, Colin, Phillips, Oliver L., Gamarra, Javier G. P., Hordijk, Iris, Routh, Devin, Abegg, Meinrad, Adou Yao, Yves C., Alberti, Giorgio, Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M., Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez, Alvarez-Dvila, Esteban, Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia, Alves, Luciana F., Amaral, Ida, Ammer, Christian, Antn-Fernndez, Clara, Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro, Arroyo, Luzmila, Avitabile, Valerio, Aymard, Gerardo A., Baker, Timothy R., Baazy, Radomir, Banki, Olaf, Barroso, Jorcely G., Bastian, Meredith L., Bastin, Jean-Francois, Birigazzi, Luca, Birnbaum, Philippe, Bitariho, Robert, Boeckx, Pascal, Bongers, Frans, Bouriaud, Olivier, Brancalion, Pedro H. S., Brandl, Susanne, Brearley, Francis Q., Brienen, Roel, Broadbent, Eben N., Bruelheide, Helge, Bussotti, Filippo, Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto, Csar, Ricardo G., Cesljar, Goran, Chazdon, Robin L., Chen, Han Y. H., Chisholm, Chelsea, Cho, Hyunkook, Cienciala, Emil, Clark, Connie, Clark, David, Colletta, Gabriel D., Coomes, David A., Cornejo Valverde, Fernando, Corral-Rivas, Jos J., Crim, Philip M., Cumming, Jonathan R., Dayanandan, Selvadurai, de Gasper, Andr L.,Thomas W.Crowther et al.

Issue&Volume: 2023-11-13

Abstract: Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced and satellite-derived approaches to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226Gt (model range=151–363Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06723-z