美国华盛顿大学David A. Watkins小组建立全球80-80-80血压目标和心血管疾病结局的模型。该研究于2022年7月18日在线发表于国际一流学术期刊《自然—医学》。

研究人员分析了在提出的80-80-80目标背景下更好的人口血压控制效果：80%的高血压患者接受了筛查并知道自己的诊断；80%知道的人得到了治疗；80%接受治疗的人实现了指南规定的血压目标。研究人员利用国家层面关于心血管疾病发生率、血压水平和高血压干预覆盖率的证据建立了一个人口范围心血管疾病模型。

在现实的实施条件下，大多数国家可以在2040年之前实现80-80-80的目标，将全因死亡率降低4-7%（在2022-2050年期间避免7600-1.3亿例死亡），并减缓人口增长和老龄化带来的心血管疾病的上升（避免1.1-2亿例）。虽然人口众多的中等收入国家将占减少的心血管疾病病例和死亡人数的大部分，但低收入国家将经历最大的疾病率减少。

据了解，作为世界范围内的主要死因，心血管疾病给卫生系统带来了重大挑战。

附：英文原文

Title: Modeling global 80-80-80 blood pressure targets and cardiovascular outcomes

Author: Pickersgill, Sarah J., Msemburi, William T., Cobb, Laura, Ide, Nicole, Moran, Andrew E., Su, Yanfang, Xu, Xinpeng, Watkins, David A.

Issue&Volume: 2022-07-18

Abstract: As the leading cause of death worldwide, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) present major challenges for health systems. In this study, we analyzed the effects of better population blood pressure control in the context of a proposed 80-80-80 target: 80% of individuals with hypertension are screened and aware of their diagnosis; 80% of those who are aware are prescribed treatment; and 80% of those on treatment have achieved guideline-specified blood pressure targets. We developed a population CVD model using country-level evidence on CVD rates, blood pressure levels and hypertension intervention coverage. Under realistic implementation conditions, most countries could achieve 80-80-80 targets by 2040, reducing all-cause mortality by 4–7% (76–130 million deaths averted over 2022–2050) and slowing the rise in CVD expected from population growth and aging (110–200 million cases averted). Although populous middle-income countries would account for most of the reduced CVD cases and deaths, low-income countries would experience the largest reductions in disease rates.

DOI: 10.1038/s41591-022-01890-4

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01890-4