美国德雷塞尔大学Josiah L. Kephart等研究人员揭示拉丁美洲极端气温和死亡率在城市层面的影响。相关论文于2022年6月27日在线发表于国际学术期刊《自然—医学》。

研究人员对2002年至2015年期间326个拉丁美洲城市的每日环境温度和死亡率进行了非线性、分布滞后、纵向分析。研究人员观察到在≈29亿人年的风险中，有15,431,532人死亡。与热有关的死亡占总死亡人数的0.67%（95%置信区间（CI）0.58-0.74%），与冷有关的死亡占5.09%（95% CI 4.64-5.47%）。极热时温度每升高1℃，死亡的相对风险为1.057（95% CI 1.046-1.067%），极冷时温度每降低1℃，死亡的相对风险为1.034（95% CI 1.028-1.040%）。

在拉丁美洲城市，相当一部分死亡是由于非最佳环境温度造成的。观察到的高温温度的边际增加与死亡风险的急剧增加有关。这些风险在老年人以及心血管和呼吸道死亡中最为强烈。

据悉，气候变化和城市化正在迅速增加人类对极端环境温度的暴露，但很少有研究对拉丁美洲的温度和死亡率进行研究。

附：英文原文

Title: City-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin America

Author: Kephart, Josiah L., Snchez, Brisa N., Moore, Jeffrey, Schinasi, Leah H., Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia, Ju, Yang, Gouveia, Nelson, Caiaffa, Waleska T., Dronova, Iryna, Arunachalam, Saravanan, Diez Roux, Ana V., Rodrguez, Daniel A.

Issue&Volume: 2022-06-27

Abstract: Climate change and urbanization are rapidly increasing human exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, yet few studies have examined temperature and mortality in Latin America. We conducted a nonlinear, distributed-lag, longitudinal analysis of daily ambient temperatures and mortality among 326 Latin American cities between 2002 and 2015. We observed 15,431,532 deaths among ≈2.9 billion person-years of risk. The excess death fraction of total deaths was 0.67% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–0.74%) for heat-related deaths and 5.09% (95% CI 4.64–5.47%) for cold-related deaths. The relative risk of death was 1.057 (95% CI 1.046–1.067%) per 1°C higher temperature during extreme heat and 1.034 (95% CI 1.028–1.040%) per 1°C lower temperature during extreme cold. In Latin American cities, a substantial proportion of deaths is attributable to nonoptimal ambient temperatures. Marginal increases in observed hot temperatures are associated with steep increases in mortality risk. These risks were strongest among older adults and for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths.

DOI: 10.1038/s41591-022-01872-6

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01872-6