英国牛津大学Christophe Fraser团队通过量化新冠病毒（SARS-CoV-2）传播，提出数字化接触追踪可用于流行病控制。这一研究成果于2020年3月31日在线发表在《科学》上。

Title: Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing

Author: Luca Ferretti, Chris Wymant, Michelle Kendall, Lele Zhao, Anel Nurtay, Lucie Abeler-Drner, Michael Parker, David Bonsall, Christophe Fraser

Issue&Volume: 2020/03/31

Abstract: Abstract The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact-tracing needed to stop the epidemic. We conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be controlled if this process was faster, more efficient and happened at scale. A contact-tracing App which builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without need for mass quarantines (‘lock-downs’) that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.

DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6936

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/30/science.abb6936