北京师范大学田怀玉、北京市疾病预防控制中心杨瑞馥、英国牛津大学Oliver G. Pybus、Christopher Dye及普林斯顿大学Bryan T. Grenfell等研究人员，合作报道了对中国COVID-19疫情前50天传播控制措施的调查。2020年3月31日，《科学》杂志在线发表了这项成果。

Title: An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Author: Huaiyu Tian, Yonghong Liu, Yidan Li, Chieh-Hsi Wu, Bin Chen, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Bingying Li, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Peng Yang, Yujun Cui, Yimeng Song, Pai Zheng, Quanyi Wang, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T. Grenfell, Oliver G. Pybus, Christopher Dye

Issue&Volume: 2020/03/31

Abstract: Abstract Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus (agent of COVID-19) in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a unique data set including case reports, human movement and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days (95%CI: 2.54-3.29). Cities that implemented control measures pre-emptively reported fewer cases, on average, in the first week of their outbreaks (13.0; 7.1-18.8) compared with cities that started control later (20.6; 14.5-26.8). Suspending intra-city public transport, closing entertainment venues and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6105

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/30/science.abb6105