复旦大学余宏杰、美国国立卫生研究院Cécile Viboud等研究人员合作揭示出SARS-CoV-2的传播异质性、动力学和可控性。相关论文于2020年11月24日在线发表在《科学》杂志上。

根据中国湖南的详细患者和接触者追踪数据，研究人员发现80％的继发感染可追溯到15％的SARS-CoV-2原发感染，这表明存在大量传播异质性。传播风险随接触时间的长短和社交互动的密切程度呈正比关系，并受人口统计学和临床因素的影响。封锁期增加了家庭和同居者的传播风险，而隔离减少了所有类型接触者的风险。

典型SARS-CoV-2患者的重建感染力特征在出现症状之前达到峰值。建模表明，由于该病毒的特定传播动力学，SARS-CoV-2的控制需要病例分离、接触隔离和人群水平干预的协同努力。

据介绍，传染病动力学中一个长期存在的问题涉及人口统计、行为和干预驱动的传播异质性。

附：英文原文

Title: Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2

Author: Kaiyuan Sun, Wei Wang, Lidong Gao, Yan Wang, Kaiwei Luo, Lingshuang Ren, Zhifei Zhan, Xinghui Chen, Shanlu Zhao, Yiwei Huang, Qianlai Sun, Ziyan Liu, Maria Litvinova, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli, Cécile Viboud, Hongjie Yu

Issue&Volume: 2020/11/24

Abstract: AbstractA long-standing question in infectious disease dynamics concerns the role of transmission heterogeneities, driven by demography, behavior and interventions. Based on detailed patient and contact tracing data in Hunan, China we find 80% of secondary infections traced back to 15% of SARS-CoV-2 primary infections, indicating substantial transmission heterogeneities. Transmission risk scales positively with the duration of exposure and the closeness of social interactions and is modulated by demographic and clinical factors. The lockdown period increases transmission risk in the family and households, while isolation and quarantine reduce risks across all types of contacts. The reconstructed infectiousness profile of a typical SARS-CoV-2 patient peaks just before symptom presentation. Modeling indicates SARS-CoV-2 control requires the synergistic efforts of case isolation, contact quarantine, and population-level interventions, owing to the specific transmission kinetics of this virus.

DOI: 10.1126/science.abe2424

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/23/science.abe2424