美国加州大学伯克利分校Joseph A. Lewnard课题组揭示印度两个地区的COVID-19流行病学和传播动态。相关论文于2020年9月30日在线发表于国际学术期刊《科学》。

来自印度泰米尔纳德邦和安得拉邦的数据提供了有关SARS-CoV-2传播途径和高发病率死亡率的详细信息。即使考虑了不同地区的人口差异，报告的病例和死亡也超过预期地集中在年轻人群中。 在暴露于84,965例确诊病例的575,071个人中，低风险和高风险接触类型的感染概率在4.7-10.7％之间。同龄接触与最大的感染风险有关。5-17岁之间的病死率超过0.05％，在≥85岁时超过16.6％。低资源国家的原始数据迫切需要用于指导控制措施。

据悉，尽管大多数COVID-19病例都发生在资源贫乏的国家，但在这种情况下对该病的流行病学知之甚少。

附：英文原文

Title: Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states

Author: Ramanan Laxminarayan, Brian Wahl, Shankar Reddy Dudala, K. Gopal, Chandra Mohan, S. Neelima, K. S. Jawahar Reddy, J. Radhakrishnan, Joseph A. Lewnard

Issue&Volume: 2020/09/30

Abstract: Although most COVID-19 cases have occurred in low-resource countries, little is known about the epidemiology of the disease in such contexts. Data from the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh provide a detailed view into SARS-CoV-2 transmission pathways and mortality in a high-incidence setting. Reported cases and deaths have been concentrated in younger cohorts than expected from observations in higher-income countries, even after accounting for demographic differences across settings. Among 575,071 individuals exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases, infection probabilities ranged from 4.7-10.7% for low-risk and high-risk contact types. Same-age contacts were associated with the greatest infection risk. Case-fatality ratios spanned 0.05% at ages 5-17 years to 16.6% at ages ≥85 years. Primary data are urgently needed from low-resource countries to guide control measures.

DOI: 10.1126/science.abd7672

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672