英国帝国理工学院Majid Ezzati研究组揭示异常温暖的气温与受伤死亡的增加有关。该研究2020年1月13日发表于国际学术期刊《自然—医学》。

在本研究中，他们使用了美国连续38年（1980-2017年）中的死亡率和温度数据，并制定了贝叶斯时空模型以量化异常温度的程度，该异常温度定义为在整个分析期间每月温度与当地平均每月温度的偏差，将因意外（运输，跌倒和溺水）和故意（殴打和自杀）造成的死亡按年龄段和性别分组。他们发现，根据《巴黎气候协定》的设想，如果温度异常高出1.5°C，则将导致1,601人（95%可信区间1,430-1,776）的额外伤害死亡。在这些额外的死亡中，84%会发生在男性中，大多数是在青春期到中年。这些将包括因溺水、运输、袭击和自杀造成的死亡人数的增加，部分由因老年人摔倒而导致的死亡人数的减少所抵消。研究结果表明，在异常温暖的温度期间，需要针对伤害进行有针对性的干预，尤其是随着全球气候变化，这些事件有可能增加。

研究人员表示，偏离长期本地正常温度会影响人类健康，并且随着全球气候变化，预计温度将会变化更加频繁。关于此类异常如何影响受伤死亡的数据有限。

附：英文原文

Title: Anomalously warm temperatures are associated with increased injury deaths

Author: Robbie M. Parks, James E. Bennett, Helen Tamura-Wicks, Vasilis Kontis, Ralf Toumi, Goodarz Danaei, Majid Ezzati

Issue&Volume: 2020/01

Abstract: Temperatures that deviate from the long-term local norm affect human health, and are projected to become more frequent as the global climate changes1. There are limited data on how such anomalies affect deaths from injuries. In the present study, we used data on mortality and temperature over 38years (19802017) in the contiguous USA and formulated a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to quantify how anomalous temperatures, defined as deviations of monthly temperature from the local average monthly temperature over the entire analysis period, affect deaths from unintentional (transport, falls and drownings) and intentional (assault and suicide) injuries, by age group and sex. We found that a 1.5C anomalously warm year, as envisioned under the Paris Climate Agreement2, would be associated with an estimated 1,601 (95% credible interval 1,4301,776) additional injury deaths. Of these additional deaths, 84% would occur in males, mostly in adolescence to middle age. These would comprise increases in deaths from drownings, transport, assault and suicide, offset partly by a decline in deaths from falls in older ages. The findings demonstrate the need for targeted interventions against injuries during periods of anomalously warm temperatures, especially as these episodes are likely to increase with global climate change. Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of mortality from injuries in the contiguous USA shows increases in the number of deaths attributable to abnormal temperature fluctuations due to global heating.

DOI: 10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y

Source:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-019-0721-y