来源:Nature Communications 发布时间:2019/7/3 11:11:36
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自然灾害每年造成全球交通基础设施损坏成本达146亿美元 | 《自然-通讯》

论文标题: A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets

期刊:Nature Communications

作者:E. E. Koks, J. Rozenberg, C. Zorn, M. Tariverdi, M. Vousdoukas, S. A. Fraser, J. W. Hall, S. Hallegatte

发表时间:2019/06/25

数字识别码: 10.1038/s41467-019-10442-3

原文链接:http://t.cn/Ai0zszJr

微信链接:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/YIs4f-yBZ8-2sCfUEzzbAw

根据《自然-通讯》发表的一篇论文 A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets 每年全球因自然灾害造成的公路和铁路基础设施损坏成本平均约达146亿美元。模型研究显示,约73%的损坏源自地表洪灾由极端降雨引起和河水洪灾。

图1:全球交通基础设施的多种灾害暴露情况。图源:Koks

英国牛津大学的Elco Koks及同事使用全球公路及铁路资产数据和灾害地图,计算了交通基础设施所面临的自然灾害暴露程度和风险,这些灾害包括热带气旋、地震、地表洪灾、河水洪灾和沿海洪灾。作者发现,全球约27%的交通基础设施至少暴露在一种灾害之下,每年全球所受的损坏成本估计在31亿-220亿美元。诸如巴布亚新几内亚之类的小岛屿发展中国家,其交通基础设施尤其易受这些灾害的影响。虽然绝对损失额在高收入国家中最高,如中国和日本,但是中等收入国家,如格鲁吉亚和缅甸,面临的损失相对于其GDP更大。

作者认为各国应在相关评估中纳入风险信息,以改善交通规划。通过有针对性地强化关键资产,预防自然灾害对其造成损坏,有助于使所有资产的支出最小化。

摘要:Transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards all around the world. Here we present the first global estimates of multi-hazard exposure and risk to road and rail infrastructure. Results reveal that ~27% of all global road and railway assets are exposed to at least one hazard and ~7.5% of all assets are exposed to a 1/100 year flood event. Global Expected Annual Damages (EAD) due to direct damage to road and railway assets range from 3.1 to 22 billion US dollars, of which ~73% is caused by surface and river flooding. Global EAD are small relative to global GDP (~0.02%). However, in some countries EAD reach 0.5 to 1% of GDP annually, which is the same order of magnitude as national transport infrastructure budgets. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that increasing flood protection would have positive returns on ~60% of roads exposed to a 1/100 year flood event.

阅读论文全文请访问:http://t.cn/Ai0zszJr

期刊介绍:Nature Communications (https://www.nature.com/ncomms/) is an open access journal that publishes high-quality research from all areas of the natural sciences. Papers published by the journal represent important advances of significance to specialists within each field.

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(来源:科学网)

 
 
 
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