近日，奥地利国际应用系统分析研究所Thomas Gasser团队报道了暂时去除二氧化碳以抵消短期的气候因素。这一研究成果于2026年5月27日发表在《自然》杂志上。

二氧化碳移除（CDR）被视为实现《巴黎协定》长期温控目标及国家净零排放目标的手段之一。不同CDR方法的持久性差异很大，短则数十年，长则理论上可永久封存。临时性CDR在当前部署中占主导地位，而永久性解决方案在大规模应用时仍面临可行性与成本方面的挑战。然而，将临时性CDR纳入气候政策的努力，依赖于一种与物理气候科学相悖的等价性假设，即认为临时性CDR与永久性CDR可以等效替代：实际上，临时性CDR无法像永久性CDR那样完全抵消CO2排放。

研究组表明，临时性CDR可以作为非CO₂气候强迫物的补偿手段，尤其是对于短寿命物种——它们的补偿比率对时间跨度的选择相当不敏感。例如，抵消1公斤CH₄需要采用20年临时封存（如生物塑料）的498公斤CO₂，或采用100年封存（如耐用木制品）的101公斤CO₂。研究组提出了一个关键的生命周期阈值，用于区分临时性CDR应用中的短寿命和长寿命物种，实施时需要对这些类别进行区分报告。该框架可为农业等以非CO₂排放为主且直接减排仍具挑战性的行业中的临时性CDR活动信用认证提供物理基础。

附：英文原文

Title: Temporary carbon dioxide removal to offset short-lived climate forcers

Author: He, Yue, Riahi, Keywan, Gidden, Matthew J., Piao, Shilong, Wang, Tao, Gasser, Thomas

Issue&Volume: 2026-05-27

Abstract: Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is considered for achieving the long-term temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement and national net-zero emission targets1,2,3,4,5. The durability of these CDR methods varies widely, ranging from decades to theoretically permanent6. Temporary CDR dominates present deployment, whereas permanent solutions face further feasibility and cost challenges at scale1. However, efforts to integrate temporary CDR into climate policies have relied on equivalency assumptions between temporary and permanent CDR that contradict physical climate science: temporary CDR cannot fully offset CO2 emissions as permanent CDR can6,7. Here we show that temporary CDR can serve as compensation for non-CO2 climate forcers, particularly for short-lived species whose compensation ratios are fairly insensitive to the choice of time horizon. For instance, offsetting 1kg CH4 requires 498kg CO2 with 20-year temporary storage (such as bioplastics) or 101kg CO2 with 100-year storage (such as durable wood products). We suggest a critical lifetime threshold separating short-lived and long-lived species for temporary CDR applications, with implementation requiring differentiated reporting of these categories. This framework can provide a physical basis for crediting temporary CDR activities in sectors such as agriculture, in which non-CO2 emissions dominate and direct emission reductions remain challenging.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10607-3

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10607-3