近日，北京大学张庆红团队报道了在全球变暖的背景下，不断上升的全球冰雹破坏潜力。这一研究成果发表在2026年5月27日出版的《自然》杂志上。

人为气候变化（ACC）预计会改变强对流风暴及其相关灾害，其中雹暴是天气相关经济损失的主要驱动因素之一。尽管已有部分研究关注雹暴对ACC的响应，但大多数工作集中于区域尺度的变化，而对冰雹尺寸的全球尺度评估仍然十分缺乏。

研究组表明，到二十一世纪末，全球雹暴引发的灾害潜力将增加36.5-42.1%，具体增幅取决于排放情景。这一结果基于历史及未来情景下的冰雹轨迹模拟，模型由EC-Earth3集合模式输出驱动，并通过多模式比对进行交叉验证。全球范围内，低层温度和比湿度的升高推动了冰雹尺寸向更大方向发展，直径≥30毫米的冰雹发生频率上升37.9-51.8%，而直径<30毫米的冰雹发生频率下降4.2-12.3%。

区域上，中高纬度地区受强升温和弱增湿影响，冰雹致灾风险整体上升；大气不稳定性增强，抵消了阻力与融化作用的不利影响。相比之下，热带和季风区的冰雹灾害潜力则因弱升温、强增湿以及冰雹增长深度受限而减少。该研究揭示了ACC对全球冰雹灾害的非均一性影响，为未来防灾减灾策略提供了重要见解。

附：英文原文

Title: Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world

Author: Zhang, Shiyi, Zhang, Qinghong, Allen, John T., Lin, Xiangyu

Issue&Volume: 2026-05-27

Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is expected to modify severe convective storms and their associated hazards, including hailstorms, a primary driver of weather-related economic losses1,2,3,4. Despite some research on the response of hailstorms to ACC, most studies have focused on regional-scale changes2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9, whereas global-scale assessments of hailstone size remain scarce. Here we show a 36.5–42.1% increase in global hailstorm-induced damage potential by the late twenty-first century, with the magnitude determined by the emission scenario. Our results arise from hailstone trajectory simulations conducted under historical and future scenarios, driven by EC-Earth3 ensemble outputs10 that are cross-validated through multimodel comparisons. Globally, increased low-level temperature and specific humidity drive a shift towards larger hailstones, with the frequency of ≥30-mm-diameter hailstones rising by 37.9–51.8% and <30-mm-diameter hailstones declining by 4.2–12.3%. Regionally, the mid-high latitudes predominantly exhibit increased hail damage potential owing to strong warming and weak moistening, amplifying instability sufficiently to counteract enhanced drag and melting effects. Conversely, tropical and monsoonal regions experience reduced hail damage potential owing to weak warming, strong moistening and limited hail growth depth. Our findings highlight the non-uniform impacts of ACC on global hailstorm damage, providing critical insights for future disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10543-2

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10543-2