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研究揭示COVID-19对于中低收入国家的影响
作者:小柯机器人 发布时间:2020/6/16 13:31:37

英国伦敦帝国学院Azra C. Ghani、Neil M. Ferguson、Patrick G. T. Walker等研究人员合作揭示COVID-19对于中低收入国家的影响。该研究于2020年6月12日在线发表于国际学术期刊《科学》。

研究人员结合了人口统计学、接触方式、疾病严重程度以及医疗保健能力和质量方面的数据,来了解COVID-19的影响并提供控制策略。低收入国家的年轻人口可能会降低总体风险,但卫生系统能力有限,而代际之间的联系更加紧密,大大抵消了这种好处。缓解策略能够减慢但不会中断传播,这仍将导致COVID-19流行病迅速压垮卫生系统。
 
在低收入国家,由于可用的卫生保健较差,造成大量额外死亡。迄今为止,受到感染的国家中,低收入国家采取了较早的行动。但是,在这些情况下,需要保持或更频繁地保持这一状况,从而使得传染保持在可用的医疗能力以内,以免对这些国家的医疗、健康和经济造成不利影响。
 
附:英文原文

Title: The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries

Author: Patrick G. T. Walker, Charles Whittaker, Oliver J Watson, Marc Baguelin, Peter Winskill, Arran Hamlet, Bimandra A. Djafaara, Zulma Cucunubá, Daniela Olivera Mesa, Will Green, Hayley Thompson, Shevanthi Nayagam, Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Sangeeta Bhatia, Samir Bhatt, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Nicholas F. Brazeau, Lorenzo Cattarino, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Christl A. Donnelly, Ilaria Dorigatti, Sabine L. van Elsland, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy A.M. Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, Nicholas Grassly, David Haw, Sarah Hayes, Wes Hinsley, Natsuko Imai, David Jorgensen, Edward Knock, Daniel Laydon, Swapnil Mishra, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Lucy C. Okell, H. Juliette Unwin, Robert Verity, Michaela Vollmer, Caroline E. Walters, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Xiaoyue Xi, David G Lalloo, Neil M. Ferguson, Azra C. Ghani

Issue&Volume: 2020/06/12

Abstract: Abstract The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower income countries may reduce overall risk but limited health system capacity coupled with closer inter-generational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower income countries due to the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being and economies of these countries.

DOI: 10.1126/science.abc0035

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/11/science.abc0035

期刊信息
Science:《科学》,创刊于1880年。隶属于美国科学促进会,最新IF:41.037